Rationale for the choice of the regional climate model to analyze climate change and water resources within the limits catchment area of the estuary of Kuyalnik

Authors: N.D. Otchenash

Year: 2015

Issue: 19

Pages: 120-125


Introduction. At present critical environmental situation on Kuyal’nik Liman can be stated. The main danger for the estuary is its gradual drying. That is the result of global warming, reduction rivers inflow, sand extraction on its shores. Actuality of the work caused by the need of determining the future state of water resources of Kuyal’nik Liman watershed under global climate changes on the base of climate scenarios.
The aim of investigation is choice of global warming scenario (A1B or A2), the data of which have the great agreement with actual data.
Research methods. Method of calculation is based on a mathematical model “climate-runoff “, developed at the Odessa State Environmental University.
The main results. For determination of possible climate change scenarios A1B and A2 were selected. For modeling the air temperature and precipitation on meteorological stations Odessa, Razdel’naya, Zatish’e, Lyubashevka were used. Temperature regime is described with the same accuracy according to the both model REMO (scenario A1B) and the model RCA3 (scenario A2). Description quality of moisturizing regime is better in the model REMO.
Conclusions. For reception of reliable results in the calculation of the flow characteristics on scenarios data its recommend to use all grid nodes, which are located on the investigated catchment or close to it.

Tags: air temperature; climate model; model "climate-drain"; rainfall; scenarios


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