Authors: Gavrilyuk R.V., Kornilov S.V.
Introduction. Scientific and practical value of the topic is based on the influence of sea level variation on economic activity in the coastal zone.
Purpose. The purpose of this work is to study surge, seasonal and long-term level variations in the North-Western part of the Black Sea at present time.
Methods of research. Standard methods of mathematical statistics used in hydrometeorology and oceanography such as statistical, correlation and regression analyses were applied.
Results. Over the period from 1947 to 1979 increase of the sea level constituted 11 cm at the station of Odessa, and over the period from 1980 to 2012 the sea level experienced wave fluctuations with a weak negative trend. During the entire period of observation (from 1947 to 2012) the sea level rose up by 14 cm in Odessa, which corresponds to similar estimates for the entire area of the Black Sea. During the period of 1980-2012 the scope of seasonal fluctuations decreased by 25% at the station of Odessa – from 21cm to 15 cm in comparison to the period from 1947 to 1979. The analysis of surge fluctuations of the sea level showed that recurrence of significant (over 30 cm) and very significant (over 50 cm) negative surges is higher than recurrence of positive surge of the same intensity. Over the period of 1980–2012 compared to the period of 1947–1979 recurrence of significant and very significant negative surges decreased by approximately 5%–6% at the station of Odessa. These changes are due to climatic changes of wind speed and direction causing surge fluctuations in the North-Western part of the Black Sea.
Conclusions. Theoretical and practical significance of the work consists in possibility of use of these results for scientific and practical activities. Estimates of variability can be used for navigation, hydrotechnical construction purposes and for operation of hydraulic structures in the coastal area.
Tags: coastal zone; sea level; seasonal and long-term level variations; surge; the Black Sea
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