The further development of the data assimilation system in the operational numerical convective-permitted HARMONIE model is presented. Radar measurements of reflectivity are included in the observational model. In the focus of the study is the following: firstly, the general contribution of radar data assimilation into quantitative forecasts of precipitation; secondly, comparison of the results of numerical experiments obtained with the use of various pre-processing methods of reflectivity in a measurement tracking system. Two methods of pre-processing, such as “simple thinning” and “superobservation” are applied for reducing the amount of input data. Comparison of test numerical experiments with radar data versus reference one, in which the radar measurements are not included in the data assimilation module, is performed, The results show that accounting reflective characteristics of the atmosphere at the model initial conditions allows to increase the accuracy of microphysical processes simulations due to correction of the moisture content in the middle troposphere. For a severe precipitation event, the test experiments provide estimates of 10 mm / 12 hours higher in comparing to the control one. Vertical profiles of moisture content show that the major changes occur in the layer between 850 and 600 hPa. In the precipitation core, rain rate increases roughly at a value of 5-7 mm / h. Correction of moisture content in the middle troposphere leads to increasing quantitative precipitation estimates at the surface and approaching them to retrospective analysis values. However, the results of numerical experiments are sensitive to the choice of a pre-processing approach and internal parameters. Optimization of this choice by accounting for the resolution of the model grid and spatial features of the atmospheric flow will be performed at the next stage of the study.
Introduction. During last decades, because of decrease of the area of land irrigation, volumes of water intake from the Katlabuh reservoir also significantly decreased and pumping of water from the Danube River stopped at all. All this caused deterioration of water quality. In particular, the salinity of the Katlabuh Lake in recent years exceeds by 2–2,5 times permissible rates for drinking and irrigation water.
Purpose. The purpose consists in analyzing physical and geographic, morphometric, hydrological, hydraulic characteristics of the Katlabuh lake and rivers feeding it; calculation of water balance components of the Katlabuh lake in 2007-2014.
Methods. Well-known statistical methods are used to analyze available materials of observations for calculation of water balance components. Regional methods and effective regulatory documents are used to determine unknown water balance components. The method of water balance is one of fundamental scientific approaches with respect to research of hydrological regime of reservoirs, lakes and ponds.
Results. Results show that precipitation on the water surface of the lake and supply of water from the Danube River flowing by gravity form, to a significant extent, an input portion of water balances. As for loss of water balances it is worth to note that evaporation constitutes the largest percentage with water discharges to the Danube River coming after it. During summer months the water from the Katlabuh Lake supports levels of the system of lakes Lung – Safyan. The values of discrepancies of water balances in 2007-2014 fall within the limits of accuracy of the source information.
Conclusion. The purpose of further developments with regard to the Katlabuh Lake consists in calculation of salinity balances on the basis of water balances which will provide an opportunity to verify accuracy of performed calculations.
A research aim are an exposure and analysis of terms that influence on adjusting of quantity of prattle moth on east of Ukraine, where the quantity of him grows the last years. For the achievement of this aim it was necessary to decide such tasks:: to study de-scription of climatic features of territory of расселения of prattle moth; to give environmentalist biological description of terms of development of wrecker; determination factors that influence on a quantity and distribution of wrecker. Meadow butterfly is one of the most dangerous pests of vegetables, tilled crops, perennial grasses and pastures. His strength is changing dramatically as in some years and for some generations. Depending on the area of climate and weather conditions this year meadow moth has from 1 to 4 different generations and uneven pace of development in various fields.This paper describes the study of the influence of agro meteorological conditions on the development of meadow butterfly populations in Eastern regions of Ukraine.
Introduction. The overview is composed on the base of materials that was received as result of regular stationary hydrometeorological and expedition oceanographic observations at sea coastal zone executed in 2013 and 2014.
Purpose. Hydrometeorological situation in the sea coastal zone has tendency for significant changes due to the climate processes. The aim of this work is to estimate the changes at the last two years. Methods. In the article used results of observations of hydrometeorological characteristics received by standard methods during observations at the sea coastal zone.
Results. At 2013 span of sea level variability was 80 cm. Year average sea level was 487 cm, that isn’t differ from average value for 2003 – 2012 (486 cm). Year average sea level at 2014 was 484 cm. Range of daily average value variation was 67 cm. Water warming-up at May-June also water cooling at September-October was occurred more intensive at 2013 than 2014. Average values of water temperature at 2013 and the average value for 2003-2012 was almost equally – accordingly 12,4ºC and 12,5ºC.At summer season of 2014 water warming-up in the sea coastal zone was so intensive, that average water temperature exceeded similar value at 2013 for 4,5ºC and average long-term value for 2,5ºC.Frequency of storm waving at 2014 was the most for the last 15 years. If year average storm waving frequency at 2003 – 2012 was10 %, at 2013 it was 9,6 %, at 2014 it was 15,8 %.
Conclusion. Climatic conditions and characteristics of the main elements of hydrometeorological regime in the sea coastal zone at 2013 for some exeptions was close to the medium level for the last ten years. At 2014 was the deep warming-up of water, increasing of wind activity, large amount of rainfall loss for the short term that caused significant floods.
It was conducted a synthesis and analysis in waters Kakhovka reservoir to investigate the impact on them of climate change over the past decade, on the basis of the actual meteorological data.
It is laid out results of the field experiments after the study of influencing of agrometeorological terms on growth and development of soyа in the period of sowing – shoots.
The article is a review of basic performances of jobs of domestic authors on the study of hydro-meteorological characteristics of Black-sea.
Using statistical analysis of observables from the 38 stations for the second half of 20-th century, the spatiotemporal features for changes of climatic fields have been determined for surface temperature and precipitation at left-bank Ukraine.
The results of numeral experiments as evaluated by influencing of droughty, moist and middle of long standing terms on development of population Colorado beetle and forming of productivity of potato as it applies to the terms of the Chernigov region. In the basis of numeral experiments the model of forming of productivity of potato and development of population Colorado beetle at different agrometeorological terms.
Agrometeorological conditions of potato crop formation in Lvov were studied, the main reasons of its crop reduction were set. The potato crop statistical dependenсеt on various agrometeorological indices were devloped wha enable опе to make supposed crop yield prognosis with the to lead time of 1 – 1,5 months.
The estimation of agroclimatic conditions of formation of levels of productivity of agricultural crops and model of definition of optimum structure of areas under crops of a farm is considered.
Results of numerical experiments with model are stated according to influence of factors of an environment on development of a population Colorado beetle.