Multifactor non-linear regression model with feedbacks – regional climate simulation

Authors: Serga E.N.

Year: 2017

Issue: 21

Pages: 39-48


The article analyzes the improved multifactor non-linear regression model with feedbacks and overdetermined expressions for coefficients of system of equations. It studies probable situations occurring when sampling of influencing factors takes place after selection process is complete. It also shows change of type of generating functions and expressions for determining the elements of matrixes and vectors of free terms required in order to get coefficients of feedbacks. The presented system of equations of non-linear regression model takes into account the influence of feedbacks between responses as independent term of equations. General significance of influencing factors and their powers is defined using Fisher’s test.

To determine connection between zones of intensive interaction of hydrometeorological characteristics of the North Atlantic and uniform regions of Eastern Europe the model was tested as a simulation one. To reveal zones of active interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean in the North Atlantic region and to determine the regions causing a significant impact on formation of peculiarities of climatic regimes in the regions of response, methods of cluster and component analysis were applied to influencing factors serving as characteristics of heat and moisture exchange in the near-surface layer and also characteristics of heat, moisture content and circulation properties of air at the 850 hPa and 700 hPa levels before including the latter in the model.

Main components of interactions of hydrometeorological characteristics were included into initial sets of samples of the model’s influencing factors and responses. Significant multiple correlation coefficients which characterize the degree of adequacy of the model prove the possibility of its practical use when solving similar problems.

Tags: coefficients of equations; feedbacks; influencing factors; multifactor regression model; polynomial approximant; аппроксимирующие полиномы; аппроксимирующие полиномы; влияющие факторы; влияющие факторы; коэффициенты уравнений; коэффициенты уравнений; многофакторная регрессионная модель; многофакторная регрессионная модель; обратные связи; обратные связи


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