Chaos in temporal raws of concentrations of the pollution substances in an atmosphere: Short terminal forecast

Authors: Glushkov, A.V., N.S. Loboda, V.N. Khokhlov, N.G. Serbov, A.A. Svinarenko, and Yu.Ya. Bunyakova

Year: 2008

Issue: 05

Pages: 225-235


The method of non-linear forecast is applied to the remporal raws of concentrations  of the dioxide of nitrogen and sulphur angidride on two points of the Gdans’k region. The Lyapunov dimensons spectrum is reconstructed and on its basis there are calculated the Kalane-York dimensions and Kolmogorov entropy, which is reversely proportional to a limit of the prediction. It is shown that already simple method for the model construction provides the satisfactory results of the forecast.

Tags: forecast; pollution substances; temporal raws of concentrations; сhaos


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