Regional climatic models verification for wind speed and cloudiness in Morocco

Authors: El Hadri Yo., Khokhlov V. M.

Year: 2017

Issue: 22

Pages: 61-68

Abstract

Currently the annual increase in demand for electricity in Morocco is estimated as 6 %. On the other hand, 100 % of all hydrocarbons consumed in the Morocco are imported. For this reason, the goverment of Morocco has adopted a program for a phased transition from traditional oil and gas energy sources to renewable energy resources. Therefore, the availability of the most reliable information about the future state of the climate is a strategically important point in the development of Morocco’s economy. Today, information about future climate conditions is possible through climate models.

The goal of this study is to verify the regional climate model (RCM) simulation results for the monthly surface wind speed, monthly daily maximum surface wind speed and monthly total cloud fraction in Morocco.

For the RCM verification, retrospective simulations for the period 2011-2016 were used. To verify the RCM projections for wind speed, observations at the five meteorological stations (Sidi Ifni, Tangier, Oujda, Rabat, Meknes) were used as actual series; all the stations are located in different parts of Morocco. For comparison, the results of model simulations at the points closest to the meteorological stations were chosen. As input observations of monthly cloud fraction, the observational data from the satellites Terra and Aqua were used.

Analysis showed that the averages by model ensemble and actual series have similar values. The RCMs provide better results for the modeled wind speed at stations located in flat areas in comarison to stations located in mountains or on coasts with a curved coastline. At the same time, it can be argued that the models do not sufficiently take into account local effects leading to the formation of a cloud regime in certain regions. As an example, the results of verification of cloud patterns in the Sidi Ifni area can be used.

Generally, despite the fact that the models in different regions of Morocco reflect the climatic parameters with varying degrees of accuracy, their results can be used in order to analyze future states of the climate system in this region.

Tags: загальна кількість хмарності; максимальна швидкість вітру; Марокко; регіональні кліматичні моделі; швидкість вітру

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